Democrats are currently leading Republicans in the RealClearPolling generic congressional average
A blue wave may not be as certain as some polls have predicted, experts warn ahead of Election Day, noting forecasts may be skewed because Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.
While current polls paint a positive picture for Democrats ahead of the midterms this November 3 — some pollsters are questioning whether that number may be inflated due to supporters of President Donald Trump being difficult to reach by pollsters, Axios reported.
Polls previously underestimated Trump’s support during the presidential races in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Even though midterm polling is typically more accurate, some still underestimated Republican support in 2022, Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center, told Axios.
I hope that it is a big blue wave and this corrupt lunatic will have a congress with a spine but I am getting 2016 Clinton hubris vibes.
Democrats aren’t winning shit. Regardless of the actual legit results, you can bet your ass that the Republicans won’t concede power.
Bet your ass they will.
Republicans depend on the “good cop” to “save the day” by taking office and “fixing” things by rolling the gains back a bit (but not reverse anything).
… just as Democrats depend on Republicans to blame for their “failures” (like when they pretend to try and raise minimum wage).
You must be new to US politics. It’s a tag team. Watch and see.
Yep. Clear as day. We’re all on the outside. No idea how no one sees it.
RepubliCrats anyways. Democratic Party is a branch of the Republican party today.
You might be correct.
The only thing Clinton and Harris taught me was that Dems (and boomers) dislike them some highly qualified, educated women.
I will vote dem predominantly going forward (bus analogy and all that) but damn, like folding pocket aces. The opponent makes it even more cutting.
No shit. The Dems, as usual, have failed to give the working class a reason to vote for them. They only ever give reasons to vote against their opponent. This strategy fundamentally fails to motivate anybody who isn’t already plugged into politics.
Cool story, go vote.
That’s the moral of the story here. We each control one vote and this is arguably our most important vote in history.
Seems like every vote is the most important vote of my life. I’m getting tired of it.
What’s that emoji for when a comment makes you laugh then it hits and you kinda get a tear but are also mad at the system but also are tired?
Yes. Every vote IS the most important one because it’s the one happening right now and is going to affect things in the very near future. I’m getting tired of dirty dishes but I still do them.
These aren’t dirty dishes. I’m tired of this system. I’m tired of the people running it. I’m tired of having the political beliefs leave other people the fuck alone, and that’s a hard concept for other people to follow. I’m just tired, and I don’t need people to tell me what I already know. But thanks for checking in.
Me too.
In a universe where Donald can win two elections literally anything is possible. His supporters would vote for a wet fart if it was directed at a minority.
No matter what happens, 46+% will not believe it.
Right now Dem leaders are crunching the numbers, figuring out how many bribe checks they can cash and still win 51% of the vote, or 50.00001%, even better. Their best political strategists are ON IT. Just like in the last election. Nothing has fundamentally changed. Not a single. effing. thing.
49.99999%. You can raise more money by almost winning, and that’s what the consultants are incentivised to do.
Payday is before and during elections. Not after
Payday is every day. they don’t stop receiving “donations”. Ever.
https://youtu.be/sI0vtqxoG1k?t=95
video content
Lex Luthor beats up The Question, while explaining: “President? Do you know how much power I’d have to give up to be President?”
Hey! It’s hard work for them make sure that we have a tight margin so that we can always be JUST SHY of whatever the working class wants.
JUST VOTE “BLUE” HARDER
Leave it to Democrats to fuck up a cost of living mid term with high gas prices and a president in the low 30s approval rating.
This should be the biggest blow out this century.
Oligarchs are the source of the problem. Citizens United means more money supporting the fascists, and control of almost every media outlet means outright fascist propaganda on the "conservative’ networks, and minimized support for progressives on the “liberal” networks.
Establishment Democrats still give us better returns on human rights compared to the fascists, but they do bow to their oligarchal masters pretty well, yes.
The point is that progressives definitely do not have a majority in the US, much less the supermajority needed to squash fascism.
It’s up to us to deal with our oligarchs and go from there.
propaganda works on uneducated people
Nobody is immune. You’re being constantly bombarded and you’re not catching all of it.
there’s no such thing as immune to ideas
there is definitely an inverse correlation between education and voting against your own interests though
Sure, I just want to point out to readers that thoughts like “well it can’t happen to ME” or “they can’t mean ME because I have a degree” is wrong. Education will not shield a person, propaganda doesn’t work exclusively on the uneducated. It was meant more as a cautionary addition to your comment than a retort.
that is fair
It should, but we are surrounded with deeply stupid people stewing in a shit-ton of conservative propaganda.
Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.
Well, that’s because they can’t read, are too poorly educated to obtain a proper job to afford communication utilities, and/or stubborn. Majority of them are just pedophile criminal racists and enjoy their leaders being the same.
Trump supporters are also less likely to show up for a midterm, but they conveniently left that truth out of their clickbait.
I’ll take it if it scares more people to go out and vote. Never assume anything is in the bag
I’m not assuming we’ll win but I also don’t believe that fearmongering works well on Dem voters. I saw a study a while back that showed that Dem and independent voters respond much more strongly to positive messaging than negative messaging. So I really don’t buy that scaring and stressing people out works.
Probably why we see so much “Democrats in disarray” messaging being pushed.
Also, all the trying to drive a wedge into the coalition by constantly talking about trans and how Democrats are “throwing them under the bus” and are “transphobic”, etc. This is why the cons constantly pivot to talking about “men in women’s sports” bullshit, too.
It’s all to drive down the vote for Democrats and blunt the force of the blue wave.
I’m fine with a multiprong assault for this, fearmongering to get those that works on to show up, while the candidates themselves provide positive messaging, doesnt seem like those have to be mutually exclusive
What I hate is that some voters seemingly want to vote with the winning “team”. It’s just as idiotic as it sounds, but I do think some people don’t want to vote Democratic if they hear they might not win.
While that might be true, I’m concerned that a lot of them are cowards, too cowardly to admit to pollsters that they’re still gonna vote for Republicans, too cowardly to even research what Democrats and independents are offering, and too cowardly to ever break their routine of showing up to vote for Republicans every time.
Their poopy leader has strongly rigged the election seven ways from Sunday.
If the narrative becomes too one sided it might discourage flakey voters. One reason why every election cycle has to be life and death
It’s the shy voter effect. When politicians are unpopular, people don’t like to admit to supporting them. In most historical cases, this correlates with low turnout, so the effects on polling tend to cancel out. When Trump has been on the ballot, this correlation hasn’t held up the same way, and polling has slightly underestimated MAGA turnout.
Basically it depends on how “real” you think Trump’s unpopularity actually is. Are these people done with him, or just annoyed enough not to talk to pollsters?
Calling the majority of any large sample size pedophiles is quite the stretch.
Except for when that sample comes from a massive group of pedophiles.
Wow 38-39M Trump supporting pedophiles not even including all the others! Impressive but seems completely unrealistic.
I was there in 2016. Ain’t nothing in the bag.
Half the country in 2016:
Probably more than half, I wager a good number of people who voted for Trump in 2016 genuinely didn’t expect him to win
The polling has been very predictive when DJT isn’t on the ballot. That said, I’m not buying the rat poison.
Turnout is all that matters, and polls anticipate turnout/motivation.
Always be voting for lesser evil! Rural people get luxury gay space communism voting lines. Seniors/evangelicals always turn out. You better believe that evangelicals hold their nose when they vote for Trump, but Armageddon and Israel worship is part of their programming. If you be voting, then your opinions will matter in the future. If not, then you will be safely ignored, because lemme nazis will remind you the only time politics matter to you, that DNC is shit.
Seniors now have -21 net approval of Trump down 24 from Oct 24. They may vote against him.
Rural voters overall have -20 net approval. Down 40 from Oct 24. Rural Republicans still net positive, but 26% disapprove of Trump, and 60% disapprove of Iran war related energy costs. There will be some flips from former, and more abstains from latter.
Show the fuck up. Protest DNC the next day, and organize next primaries or 3rd party.
I don’t think the polls are accounting for all the Republican and Trump voters that simply won’t show up this year. I’ve talked to many that voted for Trump who said to me they ain’t either voting ever again or not this time around.
If they tell the pollsters the same thing, their “likely voter” models pick that up. This is by far record low net approval rates for a President heading to mid terms. Senate needed to stop shenaremovedns.
Did your reply really get censored for saying shenanigans? Someone needs to turn down the auto mod. It’s set to the hyper aggressive setting.
I possibly misspelled with 2 g s . Your version is clockwork oranging my eyes successfully.
WHOOPS
Yeah but they’re fucking liars by nature or they wouldn’t have voted for Trump in the first place.
They also are emotional insecure people that hate being wrong so who knows
They can win a majority but it won’t do much, and then people will get mad they didn’t fix everything they don’t like and swing back to maga in '28. The road to Idiocracy is paved with repeating bad choices.
Cook Political Report forecasts Democrats will gain nine to 19 seats in the House, which would give the party a narrow majority. In the Senate, Cook predicts a potential Democratic net gain of two to six seats. Democrats would need four seats to take control of the chamber.
The current DNC chair is gonna run a fair presidential primary in less than two years…
No matter what happens the neoliberals will say midterms could have been better and Martin needs to resign. Because neoliberals have no chance in hell of winning a fair primary.
And if we get a progressive in 2028 into the White House, they pick the next DNC chair in 2029.
We’re on the cusp of some real FDR shit, but neoliberals (as always) will do anything including helping Republicans to stop it.
You’ve been saying this so often and for so long that I’m really curious to see how you’re going to try and spin it when the DNC fucks over progressives like they always do. Ken Martin is like the second coming of Jesus to you for some reason.
I bet you’ve never once looked up a bill and checked out the votes to see how Republicans blocked so many of them because the Democrats didn’t have enough of a voting majority.
Do you know why the Public Option was removed from the Affordable Care Act? Because Democrats needed 60 votes, and there were only 58 Democrats elected to the Senate, with 2 Independents voting with them… 60 exactly - this gave extraordinary power to any Democrat who was against the public option (Joe Lieberman and 5 others). If 6 or more extra Democrats had been elected, the Lieberman 6 votes would have had no power. Or if just 6 Republicans out of the 40 had voted with the Democrats. Ha.
And in the end, I always see people blaming the Democrats, not the Republicans. Because nobody looks at the actual bills and how they are gutted or defeated because the people won’t elect enough Dems to counter the Rep opposition. Shrug.
None of that is news to anyone paying attention. Obviously Republicans are terrible but if you’re going to hold Democrats up as our saviors then they need to actually save the day once in a while.
Republicans have faced the same exact power imbalance you described many times over the years and yet they have no trouble getting their legislative agenda passed. Why is that? Answer that question honestly and you’ll know exactly why people blame Democrats for shit Republicans do.
Because they vote party lines as a monolith and the Dems don’t, which is what the person you’re replying to said but you’re too both sides ignorant to hear it. You’re specifically stating right here that you don’t understand how legislation works or the government is intended to function at a fundamental level. Your opinion on things you’re currently ignorant about is about as valuable as an asshole on an elbow.
Progressive policies aren’t popular in the states.
Liberal ones are.
I guess that must be why progressive candidates pushed out a bunch of liberal incumbents in the primaries.
Oh shit it’s almost like voting in the fucking primaries actually fucking works despite the lemmy narrative.
Yeah in New York and California.
Can you give me the top 5 most popular liberal policies?
Progressive taxation. Affordable Universal Healthcare. Public Infrastructure and Education. Reproductive rights for women. Voting rights. Providing a social safety net. Climate change. Regulating industrial pollution. Firearms regulation. Need any more?
The differences are in implementation, not in goals.
Take affordable universal health care for instance. The progressive position is Medicare for All. The Liberal position is taxing and regulating health insurance companies to force them to cover everyone, and force everyone to buy health insurance.
Got introduced legislation to back up your assertions here or we just making shit the fuck up?
And can you name some progressive policies That are being pushed but people aren’t receptive to?
Depends on how you define “pushed” and “people”. There aren’t really enough progressive politicians to push any policies, and there are plenty of policies that have some support, but not widespread support. Granted, they’re typically policies that would provide widespread benefit, but have been so twisted by propaganda that the people vote against their own interests.
“Free” healthcare and college are good examples, where people are unreceptive because they overestimate the cost and underestimate the cost of the present system.
Which doesn’t mean those policies aren’t popular. They’ve simply been propagandized to be “fairy tales”. The opposition can’t argue over the policy itself because the policy is popular so they have to argue around it. That’s where you get these arguments that something is too expensive to implement or it’s going to get exploited by “the wrong people” and such. But it doesn’t make those policies unpopular. El-sayed is a great example because he runs on progressive policies and is very popular in his state. If the policies by nature were unpopular he wouldn’t be a popular candidate. Nobody gave a shit that Mike Rogers kept saying El-Sayeds policies are too expensive because El-Sayed cuts through that bullshit to keep people focused on what the policy actually is.
And if we go back to those popular “liberal” policies at least half of them are also progressive policies and some of them I wouldn’t even consider liberal, such as “Public Infrastructure and Education”. Modern American liberalism is against state socialism and state controlled public use of anything is technically state socialism. Liberals have simply adopted parts of progressive policies because they’re so popular not adopting them would be stupid.
That’s where you get these arguments that something is too expensive to implement or it’s going to get exploited by “the wrong people” and such. But it doesn’t make those policies unpopular.
Popularity isn’t about anything other than the proportion of people in favor. If the majority of people believe the empty arguments around the policy, it will be unpopular.
The trickiest part of politics is dealing with the fact that people are mostly uninformed and uninterested, and grappling with the foolishness of the average citizen.
Affordable lol. Yeah a very popular word. Without that word Universal Healthcare just tanks with the people doesn’t it? Gotta have it.
People love it when the things they need to live are… with in reach [pause for massive applause]
Or even maybe… realistically obtainable for most? [pause for wild deafening screams of adoration]
Lol. It never is.
Wtf is so confusing to everyone else though? Your wife beating neighbor isn’t suddenly going to see the light. That person gets just as many rights as the rest of us.
The system is broken. The US cannot stand as a singular country anymore. The world is always going to fight and it’s not always going to be our responsibility to police it. I don’t want to be Team America World Police. Let this place gooooooooo. Let these territories make laws that better fit their societies instead of playing two sides of the same coin for eternity.
There are still way too many people who thing republicans are decent people. Maybe it’s because your mother or father is a republican, but that doesn’t make republicans good it makes your parents horrible.
I know, I talk to a few people who say their parents are “true conservatives” that voted Republican but hate donnie and didn’t vote for him (allegedly).
SMH. What the fuck even is a “true conservative”? Just sounds like No True Scotsman stuff.
Cunts. Its an euphemism for cunts.
I live in rural Ohio, the number of signs that are proudly Republican is too damn high.
I’m always amazed, it’ll just be some guys name and then “REPUBLICAN” and that’s the whole sign, like it’s a good thing.
who thin[k] republicans are decent people
Someone can be an omnicidal bigot, and still be nice to dogs and old ladies. They can even sometimes be nice to people who don’t look, sound, or think like they do.
Republicans probably define “decent” as “opposing communism, non-whites, atheism, and Islam”.
Democrats probable define “decent” as “not being a bigot”.
Greens probably define “decent” as “opposing omnicide, factory farming, genocide, authoritarianism, and capitalism”.
Republicans just really wanna use slurs and dont like seeing queer people in public. They’re quiet right now while the gas prices are high but they’re still gonna vote ref again.
Well I just checked and apparently we’re gonna solve our problems this time by not voting just like last time…ya know because “both sides”.
