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Cake day: April 7th, 2025

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  • The “misconfigured local block gone global” theory goes like this: Reliance was trying to comply with India’s Section 69A blocking order for Telegram. To implement the block domestically, they configured a null route for Telegram’s IP prefixes – traffic from Indian users heading to 91.108.56.0/22 gets redirected to a dead end. Normal ISP blocking procedure.

    But somewhere in that configuration, instead of just inserting a null route in their internal routing tables, they accidentally originated a BGP announcement for the prefix – telling the world, via FLAG, that they were the legitimate destination for Telegram’s traffic. The internal block leaked into the global routing table.

    This is technically plausible. BGP misconfigurations do happen. The internet has seen accidental route leaks before. Pakistan Telecom knocked YouTube offline globally in 2008 with exactly this kind of mistake. Human error in complex network configurations is real.

    But there are a few things that make pure-accident harder to swallow here.

    First, the announcement persisted. Multiple researchers spotted it, documented it, and publicly reported it. Network operators contacted FLAG Telecom. The incident was visible in public routing data. Yet it stayed live for an extended period. Accidents get cleaned up faster when there’s external pressure and the error is obvious.

    Second, the timing. The government ban announcement, followed immediately by a technically sophisticated routing manipulation that happened to push users toward a blackhole rather than a redirect, followed by slow remediation – this sequence is either a spectacular coincidence or it isn’t.

    Third, the competitive context. Reliance Jio and RCom share common ownership threads with Mukesh Ambani’s broader business empire, which has a strategic partnership with Meta – the company behind WhatsApp, Telegram’s primary competitor in India. Telegram’s growth in India has been directly at WhatsApp’s expense. A platform disruption that makes Telegram unreliable while WhatsApp continues working normally is commercially convenient for a Meta-aligned entity.

    None of this proves intent. But “we accidentally configured a global BGP hijack of our primary competitor’s IP space and then didn’t fix it quickly when people noticed” is a story that requires you to accept a lot of charitable coincidences stacking up simultaneously.



  • I think that’s the point when they take it to the ‘negotiating table’ and try to keep what they’ve taken.

    Having said that Israel has a large multilayered antiair defense that isn’t just iron dome. They have SPYDER, helos with the APKWS, and it’s own CIWS systems, plus they are rushing SMASH Hopper (AI driven improvised gun mount). Which isn’t to say your point is wrong, they will run out.

    Also these last several years has turn people and their political leaders off Israel, which I mention as it just compounds the economics of this. Israel needs a functioning economy and foreign aid to sustain it, but has been turning off it’s partners. Although yes, the US seems to be an exception in this, mostly from a leader stand point.









  • As a fairly liberal person, I’m amused more than angry with the comment.

    I like the facts and would rather let them speak for themselves.

    While it’s true that the majority of the reps and senators killed, harmed, or hurt in the last two years are blue such as John Hoffman and his wife, Melissa Hortman, Josh Shapiro, Pelosi’s husband, etc. Don’t discount Kirk’s killing, and Trump’s assassination attempt.

    So two very prominent Republican and copy cat challenge are a norm.

    Also worth understanding that although the news only talks about the big events, the number of reports of some form of intimidation and threats against politicians in general in the US (local, state, and National) has started to bubble. This is the trend which has caused a lot of politician across the board to rethink their life’s work.




  • Apparently what I can find

    • Aerial vehicles SwissDrones

    • Ammunition SwissP

    • Small arms Swiss Arms parent to SIG Sauer AG

    Having said that, Sig Sauer’s US arms is entirely US manufactured and some how independent of their parent. Ammo is also made in the US. So the M17, M18, MCX, and others are unlikely to be affected. Drones though… I didn’t dig on that.

    This sort of political cutoff and worse is why the US military has required domestic manufacturing. LE still might be impacted, but can probably deal without more guns and drones.

    Having said that I do respect the swiss for cutting the US off and sticking to their neutrality.


  • I take it you didn’t read the article? I would agree that MAGA diehards do not know what’s happening nor want to know, the title of this article is a bit disingenuous.

    With the 2026 midterms fast approaching, those divides have fueled speculation that MAGA voters might defect en masse from the GOP in November. But that’s not the primary threat facing the Trump coalition: Recent polling suggests that self-identified “MAGA Republicans” are standing firmly with Trump on the war and a host of other divisive issues, underscoring the stubborn reality that — as Trump has pithily put it — “MAGA is me.”

    Yet as several conservative commentators have recently pointed out, Trump didn’t win reelection in 2024 merely on the strength of MAGA voters. His winning coalition paired his core MAGA constituency with a broader constellation of other non-traditional Republican constituencies — disillusioned Democrats and “MAHA moms” and “manosphere” podcast bros among them.

    It is that broader Trumpian coalition — rather than the core base of MAGA supporters — that some Trump backers fear has been endangered by Trump’s policy choices. As the conservative activist Mike Cernovich put it this week, “A generational coalition, squandered.” …

    The ongoing military operations in Iran are prompting pushback from many of the usual suspects on the anti-interventionist right, led by figures like Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. But the war has prompted some more eyebrow-raising defections as well: On Monday, Stewart Rhodes, founder of the far-right Oath Keepers militia whose conviction for his role in the Jan. 6 riots was commuted by Trump, announced that he is “no longer MAGA,” citing his opposition to the war. Meanwhile, Joe Rogan, the leading voice of the Trump-friendly faction within the bro-podcast sphere, has said that Trump supporters feel “betrayed” over Iran.

    Some signs of intra-GOP dissent are starting to show up in the polling as well. Though over 90 percent of self-identified “MAGA Republicans” continue to back the war, close to 25 percent of “Republicans” and nearly 40 percent of “non-MAGA Republicans” disapprove of it. The war polls even worse with independents, who disapprove by an average margin of 70 percent to 30 percent. Those voters are also more likely to cite “affordability” as a primary concern, creating a political pitfall for the administration as the war drives up gas prices and threatens to stoke inflation.

    So although there are some MAGA big names that are dissenting, the real concern for them isn’t the ground MAGA voters but the coalition of voters next to MAGA who support it and are more likely to pay attention to one or more of the 7 issues discussed in the article. (Iran, Israel, Immigration, Epstein, Anti-Vax, and AI)


  • “Warnings that oil could reach $150 a barrel have resurfaced. Israel’s attack on Iran’s gasfields has prompted retaliatory strikes on facilities in Qatar. Europe in particular is reliant on LNG exports from Qatar, as countries have been weaning themselves off dependence on Russia.”

    Streeter added: “The conflict is not only highly damaging for economies in the region, with tourism and business activity hit, but the knock-on effects of higher energy prices will have toxic repercussions worldwide.”

    The big European airlines including Lufthansa on Thursday said fares would rise if the surge in fuel prices persisted for months. They urged passengers to book early, as the industry’s fuel hedging strategies start to unwind.

    Thomas Pugh, the chief economist at the consulting firm RSM UK, said higher energy prices could cause so-called second-round inflationary effects, leading to higher wage and price setting. He said if energy prices were still this high into the summer, those second-round effects “could realistically push inflation towards 5%. At that point, interest rate hikes become much more likely” from the Bank of England.

    Instead of rate cuts, money markets are now fully pricing in a quarter-point rise by July, which would take Bank rate back up to 4%.


  • Those options ‌include securing safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a mission that would be accomplished primarily through air and naval forces, the sources said. But securing the Strait could also mean deploying U.S. troops to Iran’s shoreline, said four sources, including two U.S. officials.

    Reuters granted the sources anonymity to speak about military planning.

    The Trump administration has also discussed options to send ground forces to Iran’s Kharg Island, the hub for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, the three people familiar with the matter and three U.S. ​officials said. One of the officials said such an operation would be very risky. Iran has the ability to reach the island with missiles and drones.

    Trump administration officials have also discussed the possibility of deploying U.S. forces to secure Iran’s stocks of highly ​enriched uranium, one of the people familiar with the matter said.

    The sources did not believe a deployment of ground forces anywhere in Iran was imminent but declined to discuss specifics of U.S. operational planning. Experts say the task of securing Iran’s uranium stockpiles would be highly complex and risky, even for U.S. special operations forces.


  • “The passage where you talk about killing a dog that was 14 months old — I train dogs. All right? And you are a farmer; you should know better. You should know that if you’re going out to a hunting lodge and you’re putting pheasants out and you’re putting dogs out, you don’t take a puppy out there. A 14-month-old dog is basically a teenager in dog years,” Tillis told Noem.

    “You decided to kill that dog because you had not invested the appropriate time in training. And then you have the audacity to go into a book and say it’s a leadership lesson about tough choices?

    “But my point is, those are bad decisions made in the heat of the moment — not unlike what happened up in Minneapolis,” he continued. “We’re an exceptional nation, and one of the reasons we’re exceptional is we expect exceptional leadership, and you’ve demonstrated anything but that.”