Yeah, so you might be able to juggle and drive an unicycle at the same time but you still can’t write code or fill an excel sheet while answering to an email.

There’s nothing else in your reply for me to respond to. I made a comment about statistical probabilities and you responded with ramblings about AGI that in no way address anything I said. You’re entitled to your opinion and I’m not interested in trying to convince you otherwise.

That slightly poor wording choice was my entire point.

I’m only countering your claim where you seem to be suggesting that the term AGI was made up to market LLMs. It wasn’t - that term has existed for a long time.

In most cases when something is convenient you’re giving something up for that convenience.

Rechargeable Eneloops are Ni-Mh which makes the nominal voltage 1.2V where as the voltage on an Alkaline battery is 1.5V. The rechargeable ones are worse than normal Alkaline batteries. You can get rechargeable 1.5V Lithium AA batteries from Nitecore. Those are much better than Ni-Mhs.

The term AGI was coined far before LLMs even existed.

The term AGI was first used in 1997 by Mark Avrum Gubrud in an article named ‘Nanotechnology and international security’

By advanced artificial general intelligence, I mean AI systems that rival or surpass the human brain in complexity and speed, that can acquire, manipulate and reason with general knowledge, and that are usable in essentially any phase of industrial or military operations where a human intelligence would otherwise be needed. Such systems may be modeled on the human brain, but they do not necessarily have to be, and they do not have to be “conscious” or possess any other competence that is not strictly relevant to their application. What matters is that such systems can be used to replace human brains in tasks ranging from organizing and running a mine or a factory to piloting an airplane, analyzing intelligence data or planning a battle.

LLM are unable to become AGI.

You could not possibly know that. You’re attributing to it a probability of zero and zero is an extreme number. Unlikely is a claim you can defend. Zero you cannot.

They want AGI, not LLMs. They’re pretty much betting everything on getting there first knowing that if they do it’ll pay them back a millionfold what they invested up front. They’re taking a massive risk for a potentially massive reward. They’re coaching a college kid to become a professional athlete. It’s not profitable yet but they’re investing heavily in them in the hopes that one day it will be.

After that, it starts going downhill.

No study suggests this. It keeps going up - you’re just hitting diminishing returns.

Having financial security eases with financial worries to an extent but doesn’t entirely solve even that issue nor does it even begin to deal with the unrelated issues. One can be financially secure and absolutely miserable.